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GWS Equity Insights


/ 11 Mar 2019

Climbing a Wall of Worry

After the incredibly strong start to the year for global equity markets, it’s important to consider the conditions that led to the fourth quarter 2018 volatility and where those indicators are today. In early October, US Vice President Mike Pence gave a speech that indicated a protracted cold war between the US and China; the Fed suggested that several rate hikes would be coming as they were “a long way from neutral” and that shrinking their balance sheet was on auto pilot; the 10 year treasury yield was 3.2%; West Texas Intermediate Crude (WTI) was above $75 per barrel; 2019 S&P 500 earnings were expected to be nearly $180; and the forward P/E multiple was 16.8x.

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