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GWS Equity Insights


/ 19 Jun 2018

Positive, But Respecting Risk

We have been overwhelmingly positive on global equities for the past 20 months, however, at this stage of the cycle we have chosen to reduce our exposure by moving from overweight Emerging Markets equities to Neutral. While we have certainly not become negative on equities, given the price appreciation that we have seen, our current return assumptions have moderated to the point where they no longer significantly outweigh potential risk. Over the past month, we have witnessed US trade tensions escalate; surprising leadership changes in Spain and Italy; and rapid currency moves in Turkey, Argentina in Brazil. Although we don’t see any of these escalating into a crisis and we have seen no signs of contagion, we are respectful of the higher volatility. Furthermore, recent disappointing economic data from Europe and the strength of the dollar has challenged some widely held fundamental views.

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