Divergence of Pandemic and Credit Markets. Returns in risky markets such as CCC bonds and S&P500 have been anticipating COVID cases in the US for most of this year, displaying a clear negative relationship (i.e. higher returns ahead of falling COVID cases). These risky markets correctly rebounded in late March, anticipating a decline in COVID cases during April and May. Returns in CCC bonds and S&P 500 priced in a resurgence in COVID cases in early June, which effectively took place a week or so later.