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The Weekly Globe


/ 24 Ago 2020

The Weekly Globe

Bankruptcies signal HY default rate may approach 2009 peak. We looked at how US bankruptcies are leading indicators of US HY default rates in a comment earlier this year. In fact, two bankruptcy metrics, the Bloomberg monthly bankruptcy count (companies with liabilities of at least $100MM as reported by BCY Bloomberg function) and the NACM (National Association of Credit Managers) survey of expected bankruptcies, both reliably move about 5-6 months before the Moody’s annual HY default rate.

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