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The Weekly Globe


/ 14 Oct 2020

The Weekly Globe

Has the time for Small Cap Growth arrived? We have shown previously how both the 'secular' trend for the USD is negative (the NET National Savings rate is negative, at the lowest level in a decade, and likely to deteriorate further as US budget deficits expand further) and 'cyclical' pressures point the same way (recall how there is really only one phase in the economic cycle where the USD strengthens, that being where inflation and real growth are both declining simultaneously - policy is actively fighting that possibility). Exposure to 'USD beta' assets in this scenario (assets that benefit from USD weakness) implies increased exposure to, for example, Emerging Market Equities and the broad spectrum of Commodities.

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