/ 17 Ago 2020
Vaccine May Not be A ‘Silver Bullet’: Markets Pricing in Most Positive Tail Risk. Over the next few months there are multiple possible outcomes regarding the resolution of the current COVID emergency, depending on how the monetary, fiscal and public health policies play out in the next few months. It appears that many markets are taking the view that both the vaccine and therapeutics may be available in a few months, which would lead to the normalization of life and economic activity in the US.
/ 10 Ago 2020
US Earnings Recap. Roughly 90% of the S&P 500 has now reported earnings and approximately 83% of the companies are reporting betterthan- expected earnings. This is so far the highest percentage of companies exceeding expectations since Factset started collecting the data in 2008. Relative to the consensus estimates, earnings in total are beating by ~10% (-34% vs -44%) versus the historical average of ~5%.
/ 3 Ago 2020
US Earnings Recap. Last week was one of the biggest weeks of earnings reports, with many large-cap technology names, and a total of 185 companies reporting earnings as we are now more than halfway through the earnings season (approximately 60% of companies have reported results). Earnings for the S&P 500 historically beat expectations in the ~5% range but currently are tracking ~15% better than expected thus far. The beats have come mostly in the defensive sectors that include Consumer Staples, Healthcare, Technology, and Utilities.
/ 27 Jul 2020
US Earnings Recap. Earnings season continued, and 82 companies in the S&P 500 reported earnings last week, where 85% of the companies beat estimates. However, only 58% of the companies traded higher since expectations were high entering the week (especially in the technology sector). Microsoft was the largest company to report earnings and traded lower despite a revenue (+4%), and earnings (+7%) beat as expectations were high. Some parts of the results were not as strong as expected. The company's Azure cloud business revenue growth slowed from 59% to 47%, and margins were slightly weaker than expected.