/ 14 Dic 2017
Where’s My Inflation? Virtuous circles, in which good news begets good news, tend to lead to the most sustainable economic recoveries. The period in which we find ourselves today is looking more and more like a textbook example of a virtuous cycle. Good news has recently become widespread and global.
/ 14 Dic 2017
While we have been more positive than most about equities, we did not expect November to be as strong as it was. For the month, the MSCI All Country World returned 2% and was led higher by the S&P 500, which appreciated 3.1%; Japan, which added 1.4%; and Emerging Markets, which were up 0.2%. . Europe was down 2.1% during November. Last month, we wrote about the “Swan Market,” which was characterized by what we called “corrections taking place under the surface.” Interestingly, during November, equity markets experienced another underthe- surface correction. The Transportation Index dropped 6%, the Russell 2000 (small caps) and the Financials both fell 4% while the S&P only went down 1.5%.
/ 30 Nov 2017
Swans, by all accounts, are graceful. They glide across the water with their heads held high and an almost regal posture. Under the surface, however, swans kick rapidly, creating bubbles and turbulence, in stark contrast to their poised visible demeanor. Similarly, since February 2016, global equities have risen in a somewhat graceful, unabated manner which has, at times, been in contrast to the action under the surface. Whether through sector or regional rotations or through sell-offs in individual equities, turbulence has been occurring, but it hasn’t hasn’t always been easy to see because it has not happened at the headline index level.
/ 29 Sep 2017
Siempre evaluamos a los mercados de renta variable desde cuatro perspectivas distintas: 1) fundamentos corporativos - ¿están mejorando las ventas de las compañías, sus ganancias están creciendo? ¿cúales son sus pespectivas? ¿cómo se encuentra el entorno operativo?; 2) valuaciones - vemos varias métricas para tratar de caracterizar las valuaciones y entender cuánto están dispuestos a pagar los inversores; 3) technicals - esto es una combinación de tendencia, flujos de dinero, y dirección del mercado; y 4) el sentimiento - aunque esto puede ser el menos cuantitativo, a menudo sólo tratamos de determinar si los inversores, en general, se encuentran codiciosos o temerosos.