/ 21 Mar 2019
El potencial cambio de régimen en Venezuela ha puesto al país en la mira de la comunidad internacional. Un sinnúmero de Estados han reconocido al presidente encargado, Juan Guaidó. Se han realizado manifestaciones de todo tipo en pro del cambio, e incluso el nuevo presidente sigue desafiando a Nicolás Maduro al haber regresado a Venezuela pese a existir una prohibición de salida, arriesgando prisión por ello.
/ 11 Mar 2019
After the incredibly strong start to the year for global equity markets, it’s important to consider the conditions that led to the fourth quarter 2018 volatility and where those indicators are today. In early October, US Vice President Mike Pence gave a speech that indicated a protracted cold war between the US and China; the Fed suggested that several rate hikes would be coming as they were “a long way from neutral” and that shrinking their balance sheet was on auto pilot; the 10 year treasury yield was 3.2%; West Texas Intermediate Crude (WTI) was above $75 per barrel; 2019 S&P 500 earnings were expected to be nearly $180; and the forward P/E multiple was 16.8x.
/ 8 Feb 2019
After the dismal December for equity markets, January brought relief with the MSCI All Country World recovering 7.9%. While many macro concerns remain – a slowing China, Brexit, an Italian recession and noise from Washington – one major headwind was removed: tighter US monetary policy. During January, the Fed shifted its policy stance from tightening to one of patience and flexibility. We view the risk / reward in the S&P 500 as roughly balanced and maintain our recommendation to maintain a neutral strategic weight. Consensus earnings estimates for 2019 have been reduced to levels that are consistent with ours and valuation have come down.
/ 24 Ene 2019
When we reduced our recommended allocation to US equities in mid- November, we did not envision the 9% drop in the S&P 500 or the 7% decline in the MSCI All Country World that occurred during December. Equity markets were led down by two of the key market challenges that we cited in November: US-China trade tensions and monetary policy. However, financial markets and their psychological impact on the real economy may encourage US and Chinese leaders to expedite a trade deal and could focus central banks on macro challenges that they have not yet considered. We will be watching for any signs of movement on these two critical influences.